| Abstract [eng] |
The socioeconomic effects of introducing cleaner production practices or other structural changes in industries can be analysed by integrating the structural changes identified from life - cycle analysis or other means into economywide models. The analysis results allow for identifying impacts in a broader context and, therefore, a better assessment of their impact on society. This is particularly relevant in the case of new cleaner production practices and emerging technologies. However, there are considerab le uncertainties in such cases, as not all technologies have reached sufficient maturity. On the other hand, especially in the case of disruptive innovations, the changes may reflect a significant transformation of the industries (e.g. the complete abandon ment of fossil fuels in some industries implies a shift not only in the energy sources but also in the technologies used). Since technology development goes hand in hand with anticipating its socioeconomic impact, it makes sense to approach the issue from the opposite angle, identifying the desired directions of change in the structure of industries. This paper analyses agriculture in the European Union using the economywide general equilibrium model CleanProdEU and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis soft ware SimLab. The simulation of scenarios of change in the structure of agriculture allows for identifying changes in the structure of agriculture that would contribute to growth in gross domestic product, employment growth and emissions reduction. As these objectives are contradictory in some scenarios, the multi - criteria analysis summarises the results in different impact areas. The results point to a reduction in the consumption of petroleum, energy and chemical products and an increase in the role of lab our, construction and the retail trade as areas to be pursued for agricultural transformation. |
