| Abstract [eng] |
Introduction Topicality of the problem. In Lithuania, as well as in the other countries the main objective is to ensure the growth of national economy and competitiveness. One of the investment priorities is the improvement of transport infrastructure. Road infrastructure is one of the main factors determining the effectiveness of transport operation. In addition, it is of vital importance to the State’s economic and social development due to the fact that in Lithuania more than 50% of all cargoes and 98% of passengers are carried via road. Although the roads in Lithuania are in a better condition than the roads in the neighboring Baltic States, the highway smoothness is worse comparing with the lowest class roads in Finland. Furthermore, gravel roads make more than 8000 km (38% from the total road length) and in the Western European countries such roads do not exist any longer. A lot of methods are created in order to justify road investments and to determine their rational usage. The methods are constantly being improved due to the change in economic situation and other factors. Annually more than 500 transition road projects are created in Lithuania. However, due to the limited budget of road infrastructure, it is advisable to analyze each project separately, relying on the parameters of that road in order to compose a list of priorities referring to the effectiveness of the investment for the implementation of these projects. The object of investigations. The object of investigations of current work is investments planning into road sector by selecting priority road sections for investment. Aim of the work – to analyze the effectiveness of investments while developing road infrastructure, after evaluating the expenditures for designing, implementation, exploitation, the period of time the investments would start to pay dividends and the dynamically changeable conditions of traffic volumes and the quality of speed and surface. In order to achieve the aim of this study it is compulsory to do the following tasks: 1. to analyze the importance of road infrastructure in the contemporary economic system, and the current conditions in Lithuania’s road sector; 2. to analyze the problems occurring in the management of the investment projects and the content of road investment projects; 3. to determine the main parameters which are related with the expenditures; 4. to determine functional dependence between the main road quality parameters and change of financial costs; 5. to create a model which will help to determine the effectiveness of road infrastructure investment projects; 6. to investigate a chosen road section relying on the created model. Methodology of research includes statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, LP-search (“Sobol‘s quazirandom sequences“ method), and programming methods. Scientific novelty. A universal model was created in order to analyze road infrastructure investment projects determining their benefit for minimization of expenditures of the society and state, applying LP-search (“Sobol‘s quazirandom sequences“ method) and composing the totality of all the criteria in financial aspects. Practical value. Applying this model we can assess the benefit which is provided by road investment projects to the society, to assess the period of time it takes to pay dividends, and to list the projects according to the priorities. After composing functional dependences of the change of all parameters for all road categories and transport modes, it could be possible to adjust (depending on economic and financial conditions) the programmes of laying roads in Lithuania, reconstruction and maintenance programmes, referring to real conditions. Defended propositions 1. The model for determining the effectiveness of road investments. 2. Application of global “Sobol‘s quazirandom sequences“ method, determining the section of priorities. Approval of the results. Focusing on the subject of the dissertation, three articles were published and two lectures in the international conference were red. The scope of the scientific work. The scientific work consists of the general characteristics of the dissertation, introduction, 4 chapters, conclusions, list of literature, list of publications and addenda. The total scope of the dissertation – 156 pages, 30 numbered equations, 26 pictures, 28 tables and 4 addenda. 1. The Increase of the Effectiveness of the Investments as the Priority of Road Infrastructure Development Economic Investigations State’s economic growth is closely related with transport system including the need to fix and reconstruct the roads. Due to a better economic situation, and GDP growth (GDP in 2007 made up LTL 96,7 bln, transport, warehousing and relations amounted 11,67% of GDP, road transport – around 6,2%) the intensity of road transport is growing and it has a great influence on the conditions of the roads. More investments should be made for road maintenance and development in order to diminish the rate of accidents (because of high accidents rate the country loses 3% of GDP every year) and costs of road users. Appropriate maintenance and development of road network enable free movement of goods and the growth of economy. Better road infrastructure encourages not only the growth of import, export, transit and local transportation volumes, but also the development of businesses. The better road quality will allow diminishing the rate of tragic accidents and shortening the time of the journey. Well-developed road network will allow using new free movement possibilities, increase tourism volumes, will encourage citizens to move more actively. Asphalting of gravel roads will improve living conditions in the road areas, connection possibilities with outer regions. Furthermore, there will be better possibilities to connect with agricultural, trade and administrative centers. As a result, the improvement and development of Lithuania’s transport infrastructure will have long-term and positive effect on State’s economy and competitiveness on the international level. 2. The Effectiveness of Investments in Developing Road Infrastructure The organized project must be justified in strategic, financial, economic, technical and traffic safety aspects, also economic indicators of the project must be assessed. The components of road user costs and persons residing in the road impact zone are as follows: Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC). While driving on the road different costs are sustained, consisting of fuel, lubricants, maintenance, tyre costs, drivers, salary and other expenses. A part of these costs depends on roughness of the road surface, number and width of traffic lanes, driving speed, road curviness, longitudinal gradient. Annual Accident Costs (AC) makes a great effect to society. The accident rate in Lithuania is one of the highest in Europe. An accident rate is an important indicator of economy, i. e. the less number of people die or are injured, or the number of transport vehicles is damaged, the greater economy is received. The price of accidents with deaths, injuries, and of the technical traffic accident is differentiated. Travel Time Costs (TTC). The travel time is expressed by generalized costs that combine travel time and pecuniary expenses. The time spent on travel is considered as costs with respect to an individual since he may not engage in any other activity at that time. The value of the time saved depends on the fact what an individual may create during that time. Social and Environmental Effects (SEE). The quantities of pollutants in case if the project is implemented and is not implemented are determined. The pollution of air, dust on gravel roads, noise, and hothouse effect should be analyzed. Repair and Maintenance Costs (RMC). The repair and maintenance costs consist of the direct costs of planning, designing and implementation of the structure, and operational (maintenance) costs (while implementing the project) of the structure (the costs of permanent maintenance, regular repairs, project monitoring (ex-ante and ex-post) costs. 3. Promising Model to Identify the Effectiveness of Road Infrastructure Project Efficiency Based on these data a general model of investment efficiency may be formed: (1) where S1 – road design and construction costs; S6\" – RMC after the project implementation; ΔS2 – difference of VOC before and after the project implementation; ΔS3 – difference of AC before and after the project implementation; ΔS4 – difference of TTC before and after the project implementation; ΔS5 – difference of SEE before and after the project implementation; S6\" – RMC before the project implementation (benefit after the project implementation). Having revealed each Eq. 1 term we will receive: (2) where AADT – annual average daily traffic, vpd; VOC – vehicle operating costs, EUR/km, where: (3) where VOCi – sum of vehicle operating costs by category of transport (car, busses, heavy trucks, and prime movers); ksi – coefficient of traffic flow distribution speed; ktfi – coefficient of traffic flow distribution; L – length of road section, km; L1 – length of road section in the build-up area, km; L2 – length of road section in the not build-up area, km; AR –accident coefficient in the section under study; AC – average costs per one accident in the road section, EUR, where (4) where ACi – sum of accident costs (accident with deaths, accident with injuries, technical accident); n – number of accidents; V – vehicle speed in the road section, km/h; LVi – travel time costs, EUR/h, where (5) where – sum of travel time costs by transport category; ktfi – coefficient of traffic flow distribution; hsi – average travel time, h. D – maintenance costs for the road, EUR/1000m2, where (6) where Dj – sum of maintenance costs (repairing, cleaning, winter maintenance, etc.) B – width of the road section, m. The Regression Equations of Model Components. During opera. |
