| Abstract [eng] |
The real estate market undergoes daily fluctuations due to various influential factors. This work highlights the impact of specific economic factors on the real estate market in the Baltic States. The study covers three countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) from 2005 to 2022. Socioeconomic indicators were employed as independent variables, with the dependent variable being nominal housing prices. The master's thesis consists of three parts. The first part presents a literature analysis, allowing for an overview of the real estate market concept, identifying key economic factors influencing the real estate market, and explaining the connection between social and economic factors and why it is essential to discuss them. The second part outlines methods for determining the influence of economic factors. Finally, the last part consists of an analysis of real estate objects in the Baltic States, an analysis of the economic factors' impact on the real estate market in the Baltic States, and a forecasting analysis were conducted to identify potential price trends in the near future. In the third part, summarizing the research results, the conclusion was reached that three independent variables significantly affect the real estate market in the Baltic States: income levels, unemployment rates, and the harmonized consumer price index, while other indicators were disregarded due to multicollinearity issues. Ultimately, a possible change in nominal housing prices for all three countries was modeled using the ARIMA time series method. |
