| Abstract [eng] |
The thesis deals with the studies on the velocities of the recent vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust by applying correlation, regression and multi-criteria analysis of geo-parameters of the territory. The objective of the research involves the regularities of the recent vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust, the relationship with the geo-parameters of the territory, models of forecasting for movements and methodology of compiling maps on the vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust. The experimental subject matter is the territory of Lithuania. The major task of the thesis is to work out the method for estimation and modelling of the recent vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust measured by applying geodetic methods and to implement the suggested method for compilation of the map of the recent vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust within the territory of Lithuania. In order to achieve the determined target, the following tasks were solved: 1) there were determined the values of the measured recent vertical movements of the Earth’s crust from the data of the repeated levelling; 2) there were examined the regularities of the change of the recent vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust; 3) there was investigated and determined the relationship of the measured recent vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust and geo-parameters of the territory; 4) there were analysed the possibilities of application regressive models for forecasting regarding recent verticals movements of the Earth’s Crust and the recommendations were prepared concerning the compiling of maps of the vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust; 5) there were estimated regressive models of forecasting of the recent vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust by means of multi-criteria method of analysis; 6) there was compiled the map of velocities of the recent vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust for the territory of Lithuania with the help of the suggested method. The regressive models of forecasting and the map of vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust compiled with probability not lower than 0,95 are adequate to geodetic measurements, so it is possible to state that the methodology suggested could be adapted for investigation of vertical movements of the Earth’s Crust, it could be applied for simulation and compiling of maps. The work consists of six chapters, introduction and conclusions included. With reference to the topicality of the thesis there were made 15 reports at various conferences in Lithuania and in other countries and there were published 11 scientific articles: 1 article is included into Thomson ISI Master Journal List data base; 2 articles are published in the continued and reviewed scientific publications, referred in EBSCO data base; 2 articles are included into the materials of the international conferences; 6 articles are published in the papers of conferences of the Republic of Lithuania. |
