| Abstract [eng] |
The aim of the work is to create a hydrological model of SWAT and to carry out assessment of parameters in a small Akmena-Dane river basin. Tasks of the work: to perform spatial digitization of the Akmena-Danė river basin and to form hydrological response units (HRU) of the model being developed; evaluate the results of the AD SWAT model using SWAT Error Checker visualization program; to formulate climate change scenarios and assess their impact on the different hydrological components of the river basin; to formulate AD river basin‘s prognostic scenarios. AD SWAT model has been developed using ArcSWAT extension in ArcGIS application. 7 input data sets were used: layers of mask, DEM, soil, land use, Lithuania river network, reservoirs and meteorological data set. An intermediate layer of the HRU data set was created, in which over 200 HRU combinations were generated. By using SWAT error checker program disclosed that it is worth paying attention in the model to possible inadequate amounts of sediment in HRU units of 28 and 26, 99.4% of NO3 is removed from the soil profile, unusually low phosphorus stress days, low solubility ratio for N in runoff, the maximum final/initial volume coefficient of 5.46 was generated in reservoir 3. It has been determined that from the adapted 8 climate change scenarios, the largest changes of over 30% were identified in 11 components using the CO2RCP6.0 - 8.5 climate scenario, the smallest changes in the rainfall increasing scenario and very small changes in the application of the most likely scenarios for climate change in the area under study. |
