| Title |
Gaisro sukeliamo slėginių indų irimo prognozavimas taikant Bajeso statistikos metodus / |
| Translation of Title |
Predicting the fire induced fragmentation of pressure vessels by means of bayesian statistics. |
| Authors |
Tičkaitė, Aušrinė |
| Full Text |
|
| Pages |
57 |
| Keywords [eng] |
pressure vessel ; BLEVE ; prior distribution, posterior distribution ; Dirichlet distribution. |
| Abstract [eng] |
The problem under consideration is the assessment of the damage that can be caused by explosions in cylindrical pressure vessels. The challenge is how to predict the explosion-causing cracking of these vessels. The crack prediction is considered to be the essential information needed to predict the formation, runoff and impact of pressure vessel fragments on vulnerable objects. The explosion of pressure vessels when they are heated by an external fire is considered. Mathematically, the prediction of cracking schemes is formulated and performed by estimating the probabilities of those schemes. It has been suggested that this assessment be made on the basis of limited data on the occurrence of cracking schemes during past pressure vessel accidents. A conjugate multinomial - Dirichlet probability distribution has been applied to predict cracking schemes. The Dirichlet distribution aid is a quantifiable uncertainty about the probabilities of cracking schemes. This distribution is applied as an a prior and a posterior model in the sense of Bayesian statistical theory. The results of the work are proposed to be integrated into the process of risk analysis of the operation of pressure vessels. |
| Dissertation Institution |
Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universitetas. |
| Type |
Master thesis |
| Language |
Lithuanian |
| Publication date |
2023 |
